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Arch Manning leads No. 5 Texas

No. 5 Texas

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — 2025 record: 10-3

Expectations

Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns fell flat least season. Early national title talk ended with two early losses and Texas missed the College Football Playoff.

To get back to the CFP, coach Steve Sarkisian has loaded up the offense around his star quarterback. Transfer wide receiver Cam Coleman was arguably the catch of the offseason and the offensive line is more experienced and should be improved. Manning overcame last season’s slow start with a strong finish and could reignite a Heisman Trophy campaign if Texas can notch big wins early.

Beware more early losses that could derail Texas again. Top-ranked Ohio State comes to Austin in Week 2, and the Longhorns open SEC play at Tennessee on Sept. 26.

Strengths include wide receiver and pass rush

Manning passed for 26 touchdowns last season and has a wealth of targets in 2026. None is bigger than Coleman, who was one of the most coveted players in the portal and gives Texas a new elite deep threat to pair with Ryan Wingo. Wingo led Texas last season with 834 yards, and seven touchdowns and the kind of burst that threatens TD every time he touches the ball. Texas hopes those two can replicate what Xavier Worthy and A.D. Mitchell did in 2023 when Texas made it to the CFP semifinals.

Texas also upgraded at running back with transfers Raleek Brown from Arizona State and Hollywood Smothers from North Carolina State.

Edge rusher Colin Simmons is an elite game wrecker. He has 21 career sacks and may be the best defensive player in the SEC. An interior defensive line anchored by Hero Kanu can be disruptive. Transfer linebacker Rasheem Biles from Pitt had 100 total tackles and 4.5 sacks last year.

Weaknesses include secondary inexperience

The Texas secondary needs a rebuild after losing cover corner Malik Muhammad and All-American safety Michael Taaffe to the NFL draft. Texas also would like to develop a pass rush threat on the opposite side of Simmons. Scheming this up is new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, who came back to Texas from Kirby Smart’s staff at Georgia. Muschamp was the Texas defensive coordinator from 2008-2010, a stint that included playing in the 2009 national title game.

New faces

WR Cam Coleman (transfer from Auburn), LB Rasheem Biles (transfer from Pitt), RB Hollywood Smothers (transfer from North Carolina State), RB Raleek Brown (transfer from Arizona State).

Key losses

WR Parker Livingstone (transferred to Oklahoma), LB Anthony Hill (NFL draft), DB Malik Muhammed (NFL draft), DB Michael Taaffe (NFL draft), RB Quintrevion Wisner (transferred to Florida State).

Biggest games for the Longhorns

Ohio State (Sept. 12), at Tennessee (Sept. 26), vs. Oklahoma (Oct. 10), at LSU (Nov. 14), at Texas A&M (Nov. 27).

Longhorns’ CFP Ambitions: Arch Manning and the SEC Challenge

Texas enters the 2025 season with major momentum—and sky-high expectations.

 Why expectations are so high

  • Preseason favorite in the SEC: Media and predictive models rank Texas atop the SEC, thanks largely to Arch Manning stepping into the spotlight. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them an 83.9% chance to reach the College Football Playoff—a full point above Georgia—alongside a 22.2% chance at a national title

  • Analyst confidence: Paul Finebaum recently emphasized that with Manning leading, Texas isn’t just playoff-caliber—they’re championship-caliber. He suggested Manning “may have even beaten Ohio State” if he’d started the Cotton Bowl.

Arch Manning’s readiness

  • Skillset and coaches’ optimism: Head coach Steve Sarkisian is tailoring the offense to Manning’s strengths—particularly a deep-ball focus that fits his game.  CBS Sports pegged Manning as the No. 2 QB in the SEC (behind Georgia’s Gunner Stockton) in preseason rankings.

  • Growth and handling the pressure: Analysts from SI to Athlon note the need for Manning’s consistent month-to-month progress, balancing lofty expectations with manageable development.

A brutal road ahead

  • Toughest schedule in America: ESPN FPI ranks Texas’s 2025 slate as the 4th-hardest nationally. That brutal lineup includes marquee road games at Ohio State and Georgia, plus tough matchups at Florida, Oklahoma (Red River Rivalry), and Texas A&M

  • SEC tests loom large: SEC media polls place Texas at No. 1, just ahead of Georgia and Alabama. Odds-wise, Texas sits at +270 to win the SEC—slightly favored over Georgia (+400) and Alabama (+500) .

Playoff window: wide open, but thin

  • Experience meets fresh talent: Texas returns 12 starters and brings in key transfers (like LB Brad Spence), blending seasoned depth with fresh talent.

  • CFP expansion context: With the playoff expanding, Sarkisian warns that even two- or three-loss teams may sneak in—making near-perfection less mandatory, but top-tier consistency still essential.

Arch Manning’s debut season as Texas’s starting QB in the SEC carries immense hype—and justified optimism. With Texas leading the SEC in projections, a title favorite in national models, and buoyed by expert praise, the Longhorns are positioned to make a deep playoff push. Yet that lofty trajectory hinges on navigating a brutally tough schedule and sustaining balance amid mounting expectations. If Manning lives up to the hype and Sarkisian’s SURGE offense clicks, Texas looks poised to challenge for both an SEC title and a CFP return.